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Introduction to Forex The purpose of this overview is to introduce the forex market to you. As with many markets there are many derivative of the central market such as futures, options and forwards. In these tutorials we will be discussing the main market sometimes referred to as the Spot or Cash market. The word "FOREX" is derived from the words Foreign Exchange and is the largest financial market in the world. Unlike many markets the FX market is open 24 hours per day and has an estimated $3.2 Trillion in turnover every day. This tremendous turnover is more than the combined turnover of the main worlds' stock markets on any given day. This tends to lead to a very liquid market and thus a desirable market to trade. Unlike many other securities (any financial instrument that can be traded) the FX market does not have a fixed exchange. It is primarily traded through banks, brokers, dealers, financial institutions and private individuals. Trades are executed through phone and increasingly through the Internet. It is only in the last few years that the smaller investor has been able to gain access to this market. Previously the large amounts of deposits required precluded the smaller investors. With the advent of the Internet and growing competition it is now easily within the reach of most investors.
• 24-hour trading, 5 days a week with non-stop access to global FOREX dealers. • An enormous liquid market making it easy to trade most currencies. • Volatile markets offering profit opportunities. • Standard instruments for controlling risk exposure. • The ability to profit in rising or falling markets. • Leveraged trading with low margin requirements. • Many options for zero commission trading. • Easily accessible and attractive for the investors of different levels. • Protect your revenues from foreign currency transactions by hedging against exposure to adverse rate movements. • Trading Forex has much lower transaction costs than other investment products, a very important point for active traders. • The market on which money are assets, have highest of all possible liquidities. • It allows to avoid a problem of the instability, existing in futures and other share investments where during one time and for a determined price can be sold only the limited quantity of contracts. • The FOREX market is so vast and has so many participants that no single entity, even a central bank, can control the market price for an extended period of time. • Determination of the maximum loss by using stop loss. • Trading using an easy & fast platform. • All transactions are over the counter (OTC) that there is no specific location for the market. • The Market affected only by the supply & demand. • Real time charts.
To be profitable in today's world technology and advancement, one must be proficient and reading and more importantly understanding chart patterns and basic technical indicators. Below is just a few basic points to help your understanding of technical analysis and currency chart reading.
Price reflects the perception and action taken by the market participants. It is the urgency between buyers and sellers in the trading pit that creates price movement. Thus, all fundamental factors are quickly discounted in price. Therefore, by studying the price charts, you are indirectly seeing the fundamental and market psychology all at once - after all the market is feed by two emotions - Greed and Fear and once you understand that, then you begin to understand the psychology of the market and how it relates to the chart patterns. Most computer programs will display a small box of data usually called a display window which will contain the following items: O = Opening Price
Price bars are a linear representation of a period of time. This enables the viewer to see a graphic representation summarizing the activity of a specific time frame. As an example, we use one minute and five-minute bars for our system. Each bar has similar characteristics and tells the viewer several important pieces of information. First, the highest point of the bar represents the highest price that was achieved during that timer period. The lowest point of the bar represents the lowest price during the same period. Regular bars display a small dot on the left side of the bar which represents the opening price of the period and the small dot on the right side represent s the closing price of the period.
The market often display's some very familiar patterns of price movement. Once a pattern is established, it becomes the most probable course of future price action until the market changes. There are two types of markets which become important for the beginning trader to identify; trending and trend-less. Each market type has two specific patterns which you will also notice over time. These market types and patterns can be defined as follows: Trending - Steady elongated price movements with less than a 45-degree angel with occasional pauses, profit taking, or resting periods. Uptrends - A pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Downtrends - A pattern of lower lows and lower highs. Trend-less - Erratic price movements which are often steep ( greater than 45 -degree angle ) and cannot sustain and therefore must reverse. Although the movements can move many points in a short period of time, they often result in very little net price movement over time. Choppy - An erratic pattern of higher highs and lower lows. Sideways - A narrow pattern of lower highs and higher lows. While up-trend and down-trend days can offer excellent trading results, choppy markets often create stop outs, while sideways markets produce for little in either direction. Our trading objective is to get into a trending market and ride until we make our target objective.
Four easy rules to follow regarding Volume: 1. When prices are rising and volume is increasing, prices will continue to rise. The uptrend is being confirmed.
If you are interested in trading currencies online, you will find that the Forex market offers several advantages over equities trading.
Forex is a true 24-hour market, which offers a major advantage over equities trading. Whether it's 6pm or 6am, somewhere in the world there are always buyers and sellers actively trading foreign currencies. Traders can always respond to breaking news immediately, and P&L is not affected by after hours earning reports or analyst conference calls. After hours trading for U.S. equities brings with it several limitations. ECN's (Electronic Communication Networks), also called matching systems, exist to bring together buyers and sellers - when possible. However, there is no guarantee that every trade will be executed, nor at a fair market price. Quite frequently, traders must wait until the market opens the following day in order to receive a tighter spread.
With a daily trading volume that is 50x larger than the New York Stock Exchange, there are always broker/dealers willing to buy or sell currencies in the FX markets. The liquidity of this market, especially that of the major currencies, helps ensure price stability. Traders can almost always open or close a position at a fair market price. Because of the lower trade volume, investors in the stock market are more vulnerable to liquidity risk, which results in a wider dealing spread or larger price movements in response to any relatively large transaction. 100:1 Leverage While certainly not for everyone, the substantial leverage available from online currency trading firms is a powerful, moneymaking tool. Rather than merely loading up on risk as many people incorrectly assume, leverage is essential in the Forex market. This is because the average daily percentage move of a major currency is less than 1%, whereas a stock can easily have a 10% price move on any given day. The most effective way to manage the risk associated with margined trading is to diligently follow a disciplined trading style that consistently utilizes stop and limit orders. Devise and adhere to a system where your controls kick in when emotion might otherwise take over.
It is much more cost-efficient to trade Forex in terms of both commissions and transaction fees. Most Forex Brokers charge no commissions or fees whatsoever, while still offering traders access to all relevant market information and trading tools. In contrast, commissions for stock trades range from $7.95-$29.95 per trade with online discount brokers up to $100 or more per trade with full service brokers.
In every open FX position, an investor is long in one currency and short the other. A short position is one in which the trader sells a currency in anticipation that it will depreciate. This means that potential exists in a rising as well as a falling market. The ability to sell currencies without any limitations is another distinct advantage over equity trading. In the US equity markets, it is much more difficult to establish a short position due to the Zero Uptick rule, which prevents investors from shorting a stock unless the immediately preceding trade was equal to or lower than the price of the short sale.
Central Banks And Governments Policies that are implemented by governments and central banks can play a major roll in the FX market. Central banks can play an important part in controlling the country's money supply to insure financial stability.
A large part of FX turnover is from banks. Large banks can literally trade billions of dollars daily. This can take the form of a service to their customers or they themselves speculate on the FX market.
As we know the FX market can be extremely liquid which is why it can be desirable to trade. Hedge Funds have increasingly allocated portions of their portfolios to speculate on the FX market. Another advantage Hedge Funds can utilize is a much higher degree of leverage than would typically be found in the equity markets.
The FX market mainstay is that of international trade. Many companies have to import or exports goods to different countries all around the world. Payment for these goods and services may be made and received in different currencies. Many billions of dollars are exchanges daily to facilitate trade. The timing of those transactions can dramatically affect a company's balance sheet.
The two primary approaches of analyzing currency markets are fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamentals focus on financial and economic theories, as well as political developments to determine forces of supply and demand. One clear point of distinction between fundamentals and technicals is that fundamental analysis studies the causes of market movements, while technical analysis studies the effects of market movements. Fundamental analysis comprises the examination of macroeconomic indicators, asset markets, and political considerations when evaluating one nation's currency relative to another. Macroeconomic indicators include figures such as growth rates; as measured by Gross Domestic Product, interest rates, inflation, unemployment, money supply, foreign exchange reserves and productivity. Asset markets comprise stocks, bonds, and real estate. Political considerations impact the level of confidence in a nation's government, the climate of stability and level of certainty. Sometimes governments stand in the way of market forces impacting their currencies, and hence, intervene to keep currencies from deviating markedly from undesired levels. Currency interventions are conducted by central banks and usually have a notable, albeit a temporary, impact on FX markets. A central bank could undertake unilateral purchases/sales of its currency against another currency; or engage in a concerted intervention in which it collaborates with other central banks for a much more pronounced effect. Alternatively, some countries can manage to move their currencies, merely by hinting, or threatening to intervene.
Purchasing Power Parity The PPP theory states that exchange rates are determined by the relative prices of similar baskets of goods. Changes in inflation rates are expected to be offset by equal but opposite changes in the exchange rate. Take the classic example of hamburgers. If the burger costs $2.00 in the US and £1.00 in the UK, then according to PPP, the £-$ exchange rate must be 2 dollars per one British pound. If the prevailing market exchange rate is $1.7 per British pound, then the pound is said to be undervalued and the dollar overvalued. The theory then postulates that the two currencies will eventually move towards the 2:1 relation. PPP's major weakness is that it assumes goods are easily tradable, with no costs to trade such as tariffs, quotas or taxes. Another weakness is that it applies only for goods and ignores services, where room for differences in value is significant. Furthermore, there are several factors besides inflation and interest rate differentials impacting exchange rates, such as economic releases/reports, asset markets and political developments. There was little empirical evidence of the effectiveness of PPP prior to the 1990s. Thereafter, PPP was seen to have worked only in the long term (3-5 years) when prices eventually correct towards parity.
IRP states that an appreciation (depreciation) of one currency against another currency must be neutralized by a change in the interest rate differential. If US interest rates exceed Japanese interest rates, then the US dollar should depreciate against the Japanese yen by an amount that prevents riskless arbitrage. The future exchange rate is reflected into the forward exchange rate stated today. In our example, the forward exchange rate of the dollar is said to be at discount because it buys fewer Japanese yen in the forward rate than it does in the spot rate. The yen is said to be at a premium.
This model holds that a foreign exchange rate must be at its equilibrium level—the rate that produces a stable current account balance. A nation with a trade deficit will experience a reduction in its foreign exchange reserves, which ultimately lowers (depreciates) the value of its currency. The cheaper currency renders the nation' goods (exports) more affordable in the global market place while making imports more expensive. After an intermediate period, imports are forced down and exports rise, thus stabilizing the trade balance and the currency towards equilibrium. Like PPP, the balance of payments model focuses largely on tradable goods and services, while ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. In other words, money is not only chasing goods and services, but to a larger extent, financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Such flows go into the capital account item of the balance of payments, thus, balancing the deficit in the current account. The increase in capital flows has given rise to the Asset Market Model.
The explosion in trading of financial assets (stocks and bonds) has reshaped the way analysts and traders look at currencies. Economic variables such as growth, inflation, and productivity are no longer the only drivers of currency movements. The proportion of foreign exchange transactions stemming from cross border-trading of financial assets has dwarfed the extent of currency transactions generated from trading in goods and services. The asset market approach views currencies as asset prices traded in an efficient financial market. Consequently, currencies are increasingly demonstrating a strong correlation with asset markets, particularly equities.
The two primary approaches of analyzing currency markets are fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamentals focus on financial and economic theories, as well as political developments to determine forces of supply and demand. One clear point of distinction between fundamentals and technicals is that fundamental analysis studies the causes of market movements, while technical analysis studies the effects of market movements. Technical analysis examines past price and volume data to forecast future price movements. This type of analysis focuses on the formation of charts and formulae to capture major and minor trends, identify buying/selling opportunities, and assessing the extent of market turnarounds. Depending upon your time horizon, you could use technical analysis on an intraday basis (5-minute, 15 minute, hourly), weekly or monthly basis. The Basic Theories
The oldest theory in technical analysis states that prices fully reflect all existing information. Knowledge available to participants (traders, analysts, portfolio managers, market strategists and investors) is already discounted in the price action. Movements caused by unpredictable events such as acts of god will be contained within the overall trend. Technical analysis aims at studying price action to draw conclusions on future moves. Developed primarily around stock market averages, the Dow Theory holds that prices progressed into wave patterns, which consisted of three types of magnitude—primary, secondary and minor. The time involved ranged from less than three weeks to over a year. The theory also identified retracement patterns, which are common levels by which trends pare their moves. Such retracements are 33%, 50% and 66%.
This is a popular retracement series based on mathematical ratios arising from natural and man-made phenomena. It is used to determine how far a price has rebounded or backtracked from its underlying trend. The most important retracement levels are: 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%.
Ellioticians classify price movements in patterned waves that can indicate future targets and reversals. Waves moving with the trend are called impulse waves, whereas waves moving against the trend are called corrective waves. Elliott Wave Theory breaks down impulse waves and corrective waves into five primary and three secondary movement respectively. The eight movements comprise a complete wave cycle. Time frames can range from 15 minutes to decades. The challenging part of Elliott Wave Theory is figuring out the relativity of the wave structure. A corrective wave, for instance, could be composed of sub impulsive and corrective waves. It is therefore crucial to determine the role of a wave in relation to the greater wave structure. Thus, the key to Elliot Waves is to be able to identify the wave context in question. Ellioticians also use Fibonacci retracements to predict the tops and bottoms of future waves. What to Look For in Technicals?
One of the first things you'll ever hear in technical analysis is the following motto: "the trend is your friend." Finding the prevailing trend will help you become aware of the overall market direction and offer you better visibility—especially when shorter-term movements tend to clutter the picture. Weekly and monthly charts are more ideally suited for identifying longer-term trends. Once you have found the overall trend, you could select the trend of the time horizon in which you wish to trade. Thus, you could effectively buy on the dips during rising trends, and sell the rallies during downward trends.
Support and resistance levels are points where a chart experiences recurring upward or downward pressure. A support level is usually the low point in any chart pattern (hourly, weekly or annually), whereas a resistance level is the high or the peak point of the pattern. These points are identified as support and resistance when they show a tendency to reappear. It is best to buy/sell near support/resistance levels that are unlikely to be broken. Once these levels are broken, they tend to become the opposite obstacle. Thus, in a rising market, a resistance level that is broken, could serve as a support for the upward trend; whereas in a falling market, once a support level is broken, it could turn into a resistance.
Trend lines are simple, yet helpful tools in confirming the direction of market trends. An upward straight line is drawn by connecting at least two successive lows. Naturally, the second point must be higher than the first. The continuation of the line helps determine the path along which the market will move. An upward trend is a concrete method to identify support lines/levels. Conversely, downward lines are charted by connecting two points or more. The validity of a trading line is partly related to the number of connection points. Yet it's worth mentioning that points must not be too close together. A channel is defined as the price path drawn by two parallel trend lines. The lines serve as an upward, downward or straight corridor for the price. A familiar property of a channel for a connecting point of a trend line is to lie between the two connecting point of its opposite line.
If you believe in the "trend-is-your-friend" tenet of technical analysis, moving averages are very helpful. Moving averages tell the average price in a given point of time over a defined period of time. They are called moving because they reflect the latest average, while adhering to the same time measure. There are three kinds of mathematically distinct moving averages: Simple MA; Linearly Weighted MA; and Exponentially Smoothed. The latter choice is the preferred one because it assigns greater weight for the most recent data, and considers data in the entire life of the instrument.
Fed Funds Rate: Clearly the most important interest rate. It is the rate that depositary institutions charge each other for overnight loans. The Fed announces changes in the Fed Funds rate when it wishes to send clear monetary policy signals. These announcements normally have large impact on all stock, bond and currency markets.
The interest rate at which the Fed charges commercial banks for emergency liquidity purposes. Although this is more of a symbolic rate, changes in it imply clear policy signals. The Discount Rate is almost always less than the Fed Funds Rate.
The 30-year US Treasury Bond, also known as the long bond, or bellwether treasury. It is the most important indicator of markets' expectations on inflation. Markets most commonly use the yield (rather than price) when referring to the level of the bond. As in all bonds, the yield on the 30-year treasury is inversely related to the price. There is no clear-cut relation between the long bond and the US dollar. But the following relation usually holds: A fall in the value of the bond (rise in the yield) due to inflationary concerns may pressure the dollar. These concerns could arise from strong economic data. Depending on the stage of the economic cycle, strong economic data could have varying impacts on the dollar. In an environment where inflation is not a threat, strong economic data may boost the dollar. But at times when the threat of inflation (higher interest rates) is most urgent, strong data normally hurt the dollar, by means of the resulting sell-off in bonds. Nonetheless, as the supply of 30-year bonds began to shrink following the US Treasury's refunding operations (buy back its debt), the 30-year bond's role as a benchmark had gradually given way to its 10-year counterpart.
The interest rate on 3-month dollar-denominated deposits held in banks outside the US. It serves as a valuable benchmark for determining interest rate differentials to help estimate exchange rates. To illustrate USD/JPY as a theoretical example, the greater the interest rate differential in favor of the eurodollar against the euroyen deposit, the more likely USD/JPY will receive a boost. Sometimes, this relation does not hold due to the confluence of other factors.
FX markets usually refer to the 10-year note when comparing its yield with that on similar bonds overseas, namely the Euro (German 10-year bund), Japan (10-year JGB) and the UK (10-year gilt). The spread differential (difference in yields) between the yield on 10-year US Treasury note and that on non US bonds, impacts the exchange rate. A higher US yield usually benefits the US dollar against foreign currencies.
The U.S Central Bank has full independence in setting monetary policy to achieve maximum non-inflationary growth. The Fed's chief policy signals are: open market operations, the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds rate.
The FOMC is responsible for making decisions on monetary policy, including the crucial interest rate announcements it makes 8 times a year. The 12-member committee is made up of 7 members of the Board of Governors; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; while the remaining four seats carry one-year term each, in a rotating selection of the presidents of the 11 other Reserve Banks.
The US Treasury is responsible for issuing government debt and for making decisions on the fiscal budget. The Treasury has no say in monetary policy, but its statements on the dollar have an major influence on the currency.
The most important economic data items released in the US are: labor report (payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings), CPI, PPI, GDP, international trade, ECI, NAPM, productivity, industrial production, housing starts, housing permits and consumer confidence.
The three major stock indices are the Dow Jones Industrials Index (Dow), S&P 500, and NASDAQ. The Dow is the most influential index on the dollar. Since the mid-1990s, the index has shown a strong positive correlation with the greenback as foreign investors purchased US equities. Three major forces affect the Dow: 1) Corporate earnings, forecast and actual; 2) Interest rate expectations and; 3) Global considerations. Consequently, these factors channel their way through the dollar
The dollar's value against one currency is sometimes impacted by another currency pair (exchange rate) that may not involve the dollar. To illustrate, a sharp rise in the yen against the euro (falling EUR/JPY) could cause a general decline in the euro, including a fall in EUR/USD.
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